Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates has warned that the transition into the artificial intelligence era could become one of the most turbulent periods in human history.
Gates said governments and other institutions were not doing enough to prepare for widespread job losses and other disruptions that could accompany the rapid development of AI.
He made the remarks in a more than 6,000-word essay titled, “The turbulent AI era is here. The choices we make now are critical,” published on his Gates Notes website on Wednesday.
Gates said AI could either become a powerful tool for reducing inequality or deepen the gap between the rich and poor, depending on how governments, businesses and societies respond.
“In terms of equity, AI will either be the greatest equalizer ever invented, or the worst source of injustice,” he wrote.
According to him, the world is already falling behind in preparing for the scale of changes that AI could bring to economies and societies.
He argued that governments, experts and communities had yet to adequately confront the consequences of rapid AI adoption or develop a comprehensive plan for managing the transition.
Gates said the speed of AI development made it different from previous technological revolutions, which generally took longer to transform workplaces.
He explained that earlier technologies, such as personal computers, took years to become widely adopted because software had to be developed, costs reduced and workers trained.
AI, however, can operate on devices people already use and interact with users through natural language, allowing companies to deploy the technology much faster.
One of Gates’ major concerns is the potential loss of jobs, particularly among entry-level and mid-level workers.
“Many jobs will disappear forever,” he warned, adding that the effects could be structural rather than temporary.
He said some of the jobs most vulnerable to AI would include positions in sales, customer support, software engineering and paralegal services.
The disruption, he added, would eventually extend to occupations involving tasks such as analysing data, assessing loan applications and carrying out some forms of patient triage.
Gates said young people entering the workforce could face particular difficulties as companies increasingly rely on AI instead of hiring workers for entry-level positions.
He also warned that advances in robotics could eventually expose blue-collar workers to similar disruption.
According to him, increasingly capable robots could begin competing with humans for some physical tasks in industries such as construction and hospitality before the end of the decade.
Gates said companies would have strong economic incentives to adopt AI and robotics if the technologies could perform tasks accurately without human supervision.
He argued that this could result in fewer high-quality jobs while concentrating a larger share of economic gains among a relatively small group.
The Microsoft co-founder said the development could force societies to reconsider traditional assumptions about employment, income and economic security.
He questioned how economies built around employment would function if fewer people were working or if workers were employed for fewer hours.
Beyond employment, Gates identified cybersecurity, fraud, disinformation, deepfakes, surveillance and other forms of misuse as major AI-related risks.
He said the technology could make it easier for individuals and organisations to launch attacks against critical infrastructure, including hospitals, financial institutions, water systems, power grids and government benefit systems.
Gates also warned about the longer-term possibility of increasingly powerful AI systems behaving in ways their creators did not intend.
However, he stressed that AI could also deliver significant benefits if it were developed and deployed responsibly.
He said the technology could accelerate progress in healthcare, agriculture, education, clean energy and government services while helping address some of the world’s most difficult challenges.
Gates particularly highlighted the potential benefits for farmers in developing countries, saying AI could provide better advice on weather, seeds, crop protection, livestock diseases and soil management.
He said AI could also expand access to healthcare and education while making public services more affordable and reducing bureaucratic burdens.
However, Gates cautioned that these benefits would not occur automatically and could be concentrated among wealthy countries and populations without deliberate intervention.
He called for governments to establish national and international frameworks for managing AI’s impact on employment, taxation, education, healthcare, national security, elections and other areas.
Gates said an international organisation would also be needed because the risks and opportunities created by AI would extend beyond national borders.
“This unprecedented technology demands an unprecedented global response,” he wrote, arguing that governments, technology companies, workers, educators and communities must work together to shape the transition.
He concluded that if the world manages the transformation effectively, AI could significantly improve living standards and make society more equitable, but failure to prepare could deepen existing economic and social inequalities.
